Since the Tang Dynasty

Northwest China, once lush with water and grass

The river is shrinking day by day

Guangze returns to quicksand

The only remaining ruins of the ancient city of Loulan

vaguely telling

silk road

The lushness and prosperity of those days


Time goes by

Changes in the sea

Today’s Great Northwest

Furukawa restarts

Great Lakes Regeneration

The desert becomes an oasis
The northwest becomes Jiangnan

Is this a flash in the pan?

still

The spring breeze comes to Yumen Pass again

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
A series of signals indicate that northwest China is changing from warm and dry to warm and wet.
 

 

 

 

1 Great Lake Reborn

 

"The solitary smoke is straight in the desert, and the sun sets over the long river."

A frontier fortress poem with powerful artistic conception by Wang Wei

Not only did it amaze the entire Tang Dynasty,

It also allows future generations to have a glimpse of

At that time, there was abundant water in the northwest frontier


actually

The Silk Road from Chang'an

Crossing the Hexi Corridor

It’s not like the sky full of yellow sand in literary works

A dangerous road

On the contrary, it is full of oases

Prosperity all the way

 

The pure white snow peaks, fiery red colorful hills , the lush green river valleys, Zhangye City in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, the charm of the Silk Road heritage is fully displayed. Photography|Lee Yongjun

 

Late Tang Dynasty

The climate gradually changes from warm to cold

Northwest Territories Extremely Sensitive to Climate Change

Since then

Rivers shrink

The oasis disappears

The once vast Lop Nur

Gradually disappearing in the long sand

As historians and geographers agree

Climate and the Process of Human Civilization

have a very important connection

Thousands of years to come

The prosperity of the Silk Road

Falling into silence

 

(Please view horizontally)

Jiayuguan, firmly guarding the narrowest point at the western end of the Hexi Corridor, also witnessed the prosperity of the Western Region trade routes. Photography|Wang Jin
 

late 20th century

turn of the century

A series of changes are coming quietly

The entire northwest

The river that has passed for thousands of years has regained its youth

Ancient lake restarts

Bibo Yingying

Rongguang of Han and Tang Dynasties

Seems to be returning to the Hexi Corridor

 

(Please view horizontally)

Every summer, blooming wildflowers turn the Shandan, Minle, and Sunan areas of the Hexi Corridor into a sea of ​​flowers. Photography|Wang Jin
 

For thousands of years

Hexi Corridor

Not only the dynasty stationed troops and guarded the border

forward position

It is also the golden channel of the Silk Road

it depends on

It is the nourishment of the three inland rivers Shule River, Shiyang River and Heihe River.

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

The three major inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor originate from the Qilian Mountains, and Weulu Lake is located in the desert.

 

 

Shule River

The ancient name "Ji Duanshui"

Among the three major inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor

Ranked second

The river lake formed by the intersection of Shule River and Dang River

Haranor

The largest area ever reached 70 square kilometers.

Equivalent to 12 West Lakes

Since the Qing Dynasty

The water surface begins to shrink

And in the 1950s and 1960s

completely dry

 

Haranor is covered with yellow sand and is vast and desolate. Photography|Travel Photography of the Great Sage
 

However

Fall 2016

The surface of Haranor reappears

Spring 2017

The flooded area has reached 24 square kilometers

Haranor, which has been dry for more than 60 years

The blue waves are actually rippling

Recreate the beautiful scenery of Gobi sea view

 

HaranorThe sky and water are connected, and it looks like a "sea" from a distance. Photography|Travel Photography of the Great Sage
 

omnipotent nature

As if to prove that all this is not accidental

Mid-October 2019

Overflowing Lake Haranor

all the way west

Along the old path of Shule River, which has been dry for nearly 300 years

A long drive of 140 kilometers
flows into Weilu Lake Haraqi further west.

Among the dunes of Kumtag

Forming pieces of dreamlike small lakes

sparkling waves

The grass grows and the orioles fly

Become a paradise for wild camels and Przewalski's horses

Dunhuang citizens accustomed to seeing the yellow sand of the Gobi Desert

rush to go

Get a glimpse of the wonders of the inland sea view

 

The current water surface of Haraqi is 5 square kilometers, while in the Han Dynasty it reached 200 square kilometers, which is equivalent to 35 times that of West Lake. Photography|Travel Photography of the Great Sage
 

Shiyang River

Ancient name Gushui

Ranked the third largest river in the Hexi Corridor

After winding for 250 kilometers

Dissipate in the Tengger Desert at Minqin Oasis

 

Qingtu Lake is the tail lake of Shiyang River

During the Western Han Dynasty, it was called Zunye Ze

Quanta 4000 square kilometers

The same area as Qinghai Lake

After completely drying up in 1959

Quicksand rages

Forming a 13-kilometer long wind and sand line

Minqin Oasis is in danger

 

Villagers in Sifang Duntan, Minqin, use grass squares to block quicksand and protect their homes. Photo courtesy | Qingsuo Charity

 

In the autumn of 2010
Qingtu Lake has been dry for 51 years

a lake

Appear quietly

2020

The water surface expanded to 26.7 square kilometers

Forming 106 square kilometers of dry area wetland

completely broken

It is surrounded by the two deserts of Badain Jaran and Tengger Desert

Minqin Oasis

After all the vicissitudes of life

Survive again from desperate situation

 

On the banks of Qingtu Lake, 100,000 acres of reeds grow thickly. Photo courtesy | Minqin

Among the three major inland rivers in the Hexi Corridor

Heihe ranks first

A river of snow flows northward

Finally settled in Yanhai

It is translated as weak water flow sand in "Shui Jing Zhu"

It was called Juyanze in ancient times

According to legend, Lao Tzu attained enlightenment and became an immortal here.

Queen Mother of the West entertained King Mu of Zhou here

Historical records

Huo Qubing, God of War

From here, we attacked the Huns four times.

Wang Wei's Poems

"Outside the city of Juyan, the genius is hunted, and the white grass is burning in the mountains."

Such a place where people gather together

Juyanze covers an area of ​​3,000 square kilometers

It was actually covered up by quicksand in 1961

 


In the Juyanhai ancient lake basin in Ejina Banner, poplar euphratica has been dead for thousands of years. Photography|Daoguangjian
 

Beginning of 2000

The ancient river channel of Heihe River that has not received water for more than 600 years

The river surges again

Haohao Tangtang

A thousand miles away

Ju Yanze, who has gone through many vicissitudes of life

Nirvana rebirth

 

In 2020, Juyanhai expanded to 66.3 square kilometers, equivalent to 12 West Lakes, and the largest in a century. Photography | Wang Meng
 

In the arid and semi-arid regions of the Northwest

The resurrection of a series of rivers and lakes

does not exist in isolation

Not only the rivers in Gansu’s Hexi Corridor

Resurrected one after another

On the broader land of Xinjiang

lakes

Has also quietly regained its youth

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
The lakes in Xinjiang are mainly endorheic lakes and are very sensitive to precipitation and climate.

 

Lake Aibi is located on the southwest edge of the Junggar Basin

It is the largest saltwater lake in Xinjiang

year 1987

Shrunk to 499 square kilometers

In recent years, the amount of water entering the lake has increased significantly

2020

The water area has expanded to 805 square kilometers

Increased the area of ​​60 West Lakes

 

Lake Aibi Duck Bay. Abundant water supply regenerates the surrounding wetlands. Photography | Wang Meng

 

Tatma Lake

Located on the eastern edge of the Taklimakan Desert

It is the tail end of the Tarim River and the Chelchen River.

mid-century

300 kilometers downstream of the Tarim River cut off

Lake Tatma has completely dried up

disappeared along with

And Lop Nur


Since 2000

Daxihaizi Reservoir

Open the gate and release water 21 times

8.43 billion cubic meters of clean water flowed into the old path of the Tarim River

Populus euphratica is dense again
Tamarisk trees are everywhere again
Still water flows deep again

Taitma Lake returns

Just like a boy

 

The vegetation beside Lake Tatma is full of vitality. Photography|Wang Hanbing
 

National Highway 218 crosses Taitma Lake

Driving on it

like a water highway

Manjiang Bitou

Overflowing gold

No one can imagine

once dried up lake

unexpectedly ushered in

"The falling clouds and the solitary owl fly together, and the autumn water becomes the same color as the sky."

 

The wetlands around the lake have become a paradise for wild animals. Photography | Han Liang

in more arid

Qinghai Qaidam Basin
remote sensing monitoring data display

Since 2009

most lakes

The area shows a fluctuating increasing trend

Xiao Qaidan Lake in the central and northern Qaidam Basin

1976

The area is only 40.4 square kilometers

Now it has grown to 103.94 square kilometers

Equivalent to 2.5 times the original

In the Taijiner Lake area in the southwest of the Qaidam Basin

Flooding

Earth-shaking changes are taking place

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
The Taijiner Lake area is the tail end of the Narengrad River, and its changes depend on both nature and man-made changes.
 

Narengrad River

The largest river in Qaidam Basin

Originating from Snow Lotus Mountain in Kunlun Mountains

Finally merged into Taiji Nair Lake area

July 2010

A huge flood occurred in the Narengrad River

Salt mining companies in East and West Taijinell Lakes

Disaster relief

Build dozens of kilometers of embankments separately

Block access to the lake

1.1 billion cubic meters of flood found another way

The area of ​​Yahu Lake quickly expanded to 300 square kilometers.

Forming a rare water Yadan in the world

 

After the water level of Ya Lake reaches a certain height, it flows into the westernmost Yiliping Lake through the Kushuigou on the north bank of Jinaier Lake in Xitai. Photography|Jiang Xi
 

Due to the obstruction of the long embankment

Dongtai Jinair Lake lost river water replenishment
water level dropped

The sediment gradually settles

Seems particularly clear

This ancient magnesium sulfate subtype salt lake

Under the sunshine of the plateau

Showing different shades of blue

Independence for thousands of years

Finally broke out of the cocoon and became a butterfly
transformed into a fairy

 

Dongtai Jinair Lake is full of high-concentration salts. The precipitated salt crystals give the lake bottom special textures and joints. Under the refraction of light, the lake water shows colorful colors. Photography|Jiang Xi
 

This touch of Tiffany blue from the Northwest

Not inferior to the Maldives at all

Resurrection of Dongtai Jinair Lake

After becoming Chaka Salt Lake

Another new internet celebrity check-in place

Countless people come here to admire it

Where water and sky meet

Step into the white causeway

It seems like I've arrived

dream world

 

The pure lake water reflects the blue sky, and love is like a tide. Photography|Jiang Xi
 

just a few decades

From the Hexi Corridor to the Taklimakan Desert

From Junggar Basin to Qaidam Gobi

Water levels of inland lakes throughout the Northwest

Showing an overall upward trend

 

Changes in inland lakes

A mirror of climate change

In the arid and semi-arid regions of the northwest

Expansion of lake area

Mainly due to increased river runoff

River runoff comes from precipitation and glacier meltwater

Expansion of the Northwest Lake Group

It means changing from warm and dry to warm and wet

A climate change

is happening quietly

 

 

2 As it gets warmer and wetter, will the northwest become Jiangnan?

 

Academician Shi Yafeng
China’s “Father of Glaciers”

Deep cultivation of western glaciers for many years

Back in the 1980s

He paid attention to the changes in the increase in precipitation in the northwest

Acutely aware of the climate transition in the Northwest

and become the key to the great changes of this century

discoverer

 

Starting in 1957, Shi Yafeng(1919-2011) traveled all over the snow-capped mountains and glaciers in the west, becoming the pioneer and founder of modern glacier science in China. Photo courtesy | Shen Yongping

 

1987

History should remember this special year

It was in this year

The climate of the northwest and western regions

A sudden transition to warm and humid conditions occurs

The main supply source of Bosten Lake in the central Tianshan Mountains is the Kaidu River.

Annual runoff at Dashankou Station

From 2.47 billion cubic meters in 1986

increased to 4.97 billion cubic meters in 2000

Fully doubled

 

The rapid annual increase in the diameter of the Kaidu River It can directly indicate the characteristics of a significant increase in precipitation and glacier meltwater in the Tianshan Mountains. Photo by Wang Hanbing

 

 

2001

Shi Yafeng learned from Professor Hu Ruji’s paper

Learned that Bosten Lake has been recorded since 1955

Water levels have been on a downward trend

The area has also been reduced by 13%

But starting in 1987

The lake’s water level is rising at an unprecedented rate

to 2001

Bosten Lake water level

has returned to the level of the 1956 wet season.

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
In 2002, the water level of Lake Bosten rose by 4.5 meters, exceeding the historical highest level by 1 meter.
 

Precipitation and runoff of Bosten Lake

significantly exceeded

Sum of evaporation, output and irrigation water

The lake area has not seen any decline for 15 consecutive years

Water levels rise rapidly

Indicates the occurrence of hydrological environment in mountainous areas

major changes

Shi Yafeng inferred from this

Northwest climate

There are clear signs of a transition to warm and humid conditions

 

In 2002, the area of ​​Bosten Lake expanded to more than 1,000 square kilometers, equivalent to 200 West Lakes. Photography|Wang Hanbing
 

June 2002

Shi Yafeng led the team to Xinjiang

In-depth research

The outline of warm and humidification in northwest China is gradually becoming clearer

September 2002

At the initiative of Shi Yafeng

Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Joint China Meteorological Administration Climate Center

Xinjiang Autonomous Region Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau and other 10 units

Seminar held in Lanzhou

Scientists basically agree

Hypothesis on the climate transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in northwest China

and its impact on prospects

Make assessments and estimates

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

By comprehensively assessing climate transition signals such as river runoff and lake water levels, Shi Yafeng divided the climate change in the northwest region into three regions: significant transition area (significant wetting occurs), mild transition area (wetting trend occurs) and no Transition zone (sustained warm and dry zone).

 

hydrological data

is a very important climate change signal

Among the 26 major rivers in Xinjiang

Average annual runoff of 18 rivers

have significantly increased

Average annual runoff from 1987 to 2000

Compared with 1956-1986

The increase is 5%-40%

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
From 1987 to 2000, the average annual total river runoff in Xinjiang increased by 6.21 billion cubic meters compared with 1956-1986, an increase of 7%.
 

precipitation

is a more direct indicator

Average annual precipitation from 1987 to 2000

Comparison with average from 1961-1986

Northern Xinjiang increased by 22%

An increase of 33% in the South

Tianshan increased by 12%

Qilian Mountains, central and western Hexi Corridor

and parts of the Qinghai Plateau

The average increase is between 10%-20%

 

(Please view horizontally)

The Heihe River originates from the Qilian Mountains. Since the mid-to-late 1980s, the runoff from the mountains has continued to increase. Photography | Charlie

 

 

As precipitation increases

Analysis using NOAA/AVHAR satellite monitoring data

Discovery 1981-2001

Areas with significantly improved vegetation in the entire northwest region

Reach 13%

The main improvement areas are

Near Hotan in western, northern and southern Xinjiang

Gansu Hexi Corridor and nearby Lanzhou

Near Yinchuan Plain in Ningxia and Yulin in northern Shaanxi

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
The increase in precipitation and human factors have played a decisive role in the improvement of vegetation.
 

Improvement of vegetation

and a reduction in wind speed

greatly reduced

Frequency of sandstorms

1990s compared to 1960-70s

Total number of sandstorm days nationwide

cliff fall

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
It can be seen from the year-to-year changes in the total number of sandstorm days across the country that sandstorms were most common in the 1960s and 1970s, and dropped below the average level after the mid-1980s.
 

year 2002

When Shi Yafeng’s team assessed climate change in the northwest

The increase in precipitation is mainly in

Northwest Territories Midwest

Including Xinjiang, Gansu Hexi Corridor and parts of Qinghai

And predicted the eastern part of the Northwest Territories

It will also change to warm and humid conditions

Verified by more than ten years of changes

Monitoring data display

after 2004

Precipitation in eastern Shaanxi and Gansu is as expected

start to increase slowly

Precipitation has increased more significantly in recent years

And ground vegetation

It also gradually recovered at a speed visible to the naked eye.

 

Sanguyao Village, Tiebian Town, Wuqi County, Yan'an City, Shaanxi Province is located on the Loess Plateau. The picture shows a comparison of the scene in 2012 (top) and 1984 (bottom). Photo courtesy | Xinhua News Agency

 

Mu Us Sandy Land is one of the four major sandy lands in my country.

Located between Yulin City, Shaanxi Province and Ordos City, Inner Mongolia

The total area is 38,000 square kilometers

It is about the same area as Taiwan

in recent years

The ecological condition of the sandy land has improved overall

The desertification land control rate in Yulin City has reached 93%

Mu Us Sandy Land as a noun

will become history

 

Before 1949, the forest coverage rate in Yulin City was only 0.9%. Today, the forest coverage rate has increased to 33%. Photography|Mario
 

People retreat from the sand

Go to green and retreat to sand

The historical transformation of Mu Us Sandy Land can be attributed to

70% are alive

Thirty percent is in the sky


after 2000

Local precipitation increases by an average of 5.7 mm per year

nearly 50 years

The average annual precipitation in the southern edge of Mu Us Sandy Land is 425 mm.

In 2017, it increased to 637 mm

Equivalent to

Beijing’s annual rainfall

 

Ecological zone of the Yinchuan section of the Yellow River in Mu Us Sandy Land. Photography|Tutukanke
 

after 2000

Warming and humidification trends in northwest China

more obvious

and began to expand to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

nearly 20 years

With the increase in precipitation

Lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are expanding significantly

Extreme precipitation events have also increased significantly

 

In the past four decades, precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has shown a significant increase trend in early summer from May to June, and as a result, vegetation has turned significantly greener. Photography | Zhang Chaoyin
 

Mid-August 2011

Rain continues in the hinterland of Hoh Xil

The water level of Zhuonai Lake rises rapidly

September 14
triggered the East Coast Rout

Overflowing flood water on plateau surface

Breaking out of a deep and wide ditch

 

The small waterfall that appears at the breach on the east bank of Zhuonai Lake is 5 meters high. Photography|Yang Yong
 

More than one billion cubic meters of lake water

galloping down

Flows into Lake Kusai in the east

trigger a chain reaction

Then the water of Lake Kusai overflowed

It is connected to Lake Hedinauer and Salt Lake to the east

July 2020

The area of ​​the salt lake expanded to 200 square kilometers

The lake level is only 4 meters lower than the lowest point on the watershed

once collapsed

The lake water finally passes through Qingshui River

It flows into the Chumar River, the northern source of the Yangtze River.

Becomes the northernmost source of the Yangtze River

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
In 2020, the emergency diversion project of the Salt Lake was completed, and the lake water was diverted to low-lying areas, and the water level of the Salt Lake gradually stabilized.
 

The entire six northwest provinces

due to increased precipitation

Vegetation growing season NPP

plant net primary productivity

Overall, there is an increasing trend

And in 1999

mutate

From an insignificant increase to a significant increase

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
Areas with significant increases in net primary productivity are mainly near the agro-pastoral ecotone.
 

Various monitoring data display

The warm and humid period speculated by Shi Yafeng

Appear early in the northwest and east

the entire northwest

Already showing a comprehensive trend of warming and humidification

But this trend belongs to

Generations

centenary

Or is it climate change on a longer time scale?

The scientific community has not yet reached a conclusion

 

 

3 Warm China, the changes of the century are still short-lived

 

Northwest China is located within the Asian continent

Stay away from ocean water vapor sources

Deserts and Gobi are widespread

Replenishing the air with local water vapor is severely restricted

thereby reducing the precipitation increase rate

for hundreds of years

Excessive groundwater development

vegetation destruction

Soil moisture decreases

These also increase the difficulties of climate transition

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
Precipitation is scarce in the Northwest, so drought and water shortage are important features of the Northwest.
 

in recent years

River runoff increases in northwest China

In addition to increased precipitation

Increasing glacier melting is an important factor

There are modern glaciers in the northwest arid region

22240 items

Area 27974 square kilometers

As climate warms

Glaciers melt and expand

Estimated period 1960-1995

Northwest glaciers have reduced by 1,400 square kilometers

Equivalent to a reduction of 8%

 

(Please view horizontally)

In October 2020, at the top of the Animaqing Glacier accumulation area at an altitude of nearly 6,000 meters, the Sanjiangyuan Glacier Scientific Expedition Team of the Second Qinghai-Tibet Scientific Expedition successfully drilled a 170-meter-long glacier. High-quality mountain bottom ice cores provide accurate scientific information for studying climate and environmental changes in the region over the past thousands of years. Photography|Chen Chunshi
 

Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are retreating more seriously

According to China’s Second Glacier Inventory Statistics
there are 2,684 glaciers in the Qilian Mountains

Area 1597 square kilometers

Compared with the first glacier catalog

The glacier retreated by 420.81 square kilometers

From 1956 to 2010

One-fifth of the glaciers have disappeared

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

When the thickness of the glacier becomes seriously thinner and the ablation amount reduced by rapid retreat at the tip exceeds the increased ablation amount on the surface, the glacier melt water will decline rapidly.

 

Prospects for water resources in northwest China
Jiang Tong, chief researcher at the National Climate Center

not optimistic

As the glacier retreats to a certain extent, it will

No ice to melt

He believes that by 2050-2070

River runoff in the Northwest Territories is likely to

no more increase

The climate and geography pattern determines

Northwest China will not become Jiangnan


(Please view horizontally)

The annual precipitation in most areas of the Qaidam Basin is less than 100 mm, but the potential evaporation exceeds 2,000 mm, making it extremely arid. Photography|Zhang Chaoyin
 

Academician Ding Yihui

Deputy Director of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change

His views on the prospects of warming and humidification in the northwest

cautiously optimistic

Through water vapor source analysis

Ding Yihui discovered

Contribution of external water vapor to precipitation efficiency and precipitation amount

Far greater than the contribution of local water vapor

Therefore, the increase in external water vapor causes the northwest to become humid.

main reason

Even if glacier melt water decreases in the future

As long as the external water vapor does not decrease,

Northwest river runoff by mid-21st century

It is still possible to increase

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
Regarding the contribution of precipitation in the northwest, water vapor suppliers outside the northwest region are about 20 times greater than those circulated within the region.
 

in particular

External water vapor in the northwest mainly comes from

Pacific Ocean

arabian sea

indian ocean

As the Arctic warms

Rapid melting of sea ice

Water vapor from the Arctic Ocean is also increasing

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
Water vapor in the four places is concentrated in the northwest, water vapor transport is strengthened, and precipitation in the northwest increases.
 

Water vapor transport in the northwest region

not only from the Atlantic and Arctic oceans

The influence of westerly airflow

There is also the invasion of the South Asian monsoon and the East Asian monsoon

At the same time, it is also affected by the topography of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

profound influence

 

Warm and moist air from the southwest flows through the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Yarlung Zangbo River Gorge in the east and enters the northwest region, and its activities are consistent with the summer monsoon. Photo courtesy|NASA
 

By analyzing seasonal differences in wetting in the northwest

Ding Yihui thinks

The main cause of warm and humidification in the northwest

It is not a local or regional reason

It is mainly caused by changes in large-scale circulation

Global warming drives water cycle intensification

It may be due to the warm and humid climate in the northwest

root cause

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

According to Bengtsson L (1997), when greenhouse gases double, the amount of water vapor transported from the ocean to the land will increase by 11%, the evaporation on the land will increase by 5%, and the precipitation on the land will increase by 8.5%, returning from the continent to the ocean. The amount of runoff will also increase by 10.3%. His estimated doubling time for greenhouse gases occurs between 2030 and 2040. Data source: "Assessment of the climate transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in northwest China"

 

2019

The global average temperature is higher than before the industrial revolution

1.1 degrees Celsius higher

2009-2018

The warmest 10 years in the past 1,700 years

influenced by

Since 1980

The global water cycle is intensifying

Global land precipitation since 1950

are increasing

After 1990s

There is a rapid increasing trend

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

Data source: NASA’s Global Rainfall Monitoring Satellite

 

In the context of global warming

Northwest China

Since the end of the Little Ice Age from the 1860s to the 1880s,

Basically developing towards warm and dry conditions

Since the 1980s

Temperatures are rising more strongly

Actual measurement records show

Western China temperature

Rising with a trend of 0.3℃ every 10 years

1987-2000 compared with 1961-1986

The average temperature in the northwest region increased by 0.7℃

 

On July 31, 2018, a sudden heavy rain fell in the Xiaobao area of ​​Hami City, Xinjiang. The maximum rainfall in one hour reached 110 mm, and the maximum annual rainfall in local history was 52.4 mm. Photo courtesy|China News Service
 

past 30 years

These are the 30 warmest years in the past 1,400 years

The rising temperature
is approaching

Temperatures during the interglacial period 30,000 to 40,000 years ago

then

China has a special warm and humid climate

There are many rivers and lakes in the west

Rich broadleaf tree species

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau precipitation

40-100% higher than modern ones

The lake area of ​​the Qaidam Basin reaches

25,000 square kilometers

The lake level is 50-60 meters higher than modern times

 

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
Although Baijian Lake in Minqin County, Gansu Province is now a salt flat, more than 30,000 years ago, the lake covered 16,000 square kilometers, an area equivalent to that of Beijing.

 

Shi Yafeng’s report on climate transition in northwest China

Evaluation report in progress

Comprehensive consideration of changes in sunspot cycle length

and changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols

Forecast to the end of the 21st century

The temperature increase in northwest China may reach 2.67℃

According to the records of Guriya ice core

This temperature is equivalent to

The heyday of the Holocene Warm Period 6000-7200 years ago

at this time

At the time of Yangshao culture period

China's agriculture and population have developed greatly

The annual precipitation in Qinghai Lake is 70%-80% higher than in modern times

Inland lakes are at high water levels

The desert is shrinking

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

The Yangshao Culture is an important Neolithic painted pottery culture in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, which lasted from about 5000 BC to 3000 BC.

 

Forecast to 2050

The average temperature in the northwest provinces and regions will rise by 1.94℃

This temperature is equivalent to

The Qin-Han Warm Period around the 3rd century AD

at this time

The Zhuye Ze in Minqin, Gansu Province covers an area of ​​more than 4,000 square kilometers.

There are 1.09 million soldiers and civilians living on the Ordos Plateau

Lop Nur is a large lake with abundant water and grass.

Nourished the 14,000 population of the ancient Loulan country

"The vastness is three hundred miles, and its water pavilions are inhabited. It does not increase or decrease in winter or summer."

Become the throat of the Silk Road

 

Animation丨Geographic Commune丨Du Zhuoyi
The Lop Nur water area in the Han Dynasty was vast, and the Tarim River, Kongque River, Cheerchen River and Shule River distributed on the edge of the Tarim Basin all flowed into this depression. Data source: "Changes of the Tarim River and Evolution of Lop Nur"
 

Similar studies on paleoclimate show that

Warm period from hundreds to thousands of years

Usually characterized by a warm and humid climate

Increased precipitation

Rich runoff

Lush vegetation

Meteorologist Zhu Kezhen published in 1972

"Preliminary Research on China's Climate Change in the Past Five Thousand Years"

This supports the conclusion

 

Zhu Kezhen (1890-1974), As the founder of modern meteorological science in China, his series of foundational studies on climate change have basic scientific significance for today's understanding of this major global issue. Photography|Ao Enhong

 

Combining history, phenology, local chronicles and instrumental observations

Zhu Kezhen summarizes climate change over the past 5,000 years

It is roughly divided into 4 warm periods and 4 cold periods.

Between 3000 B.C. and 1100 B.C.

first warm period

Both sides of the Yellow River are covered with green bamboos

Wild elephants run in the Central Plains

The second warm period corresponds to

Spring and Autumn Period, Warring States Period and Qin and Han Dynasties

Qilu area can produce two crops a year

The third warm period was the Sui and Tang Dynasties

There is no ice or snow in Chang'an City in winter

Can grow plum blossoms and tangerines

The fourth warm period corresponds to the Northern Song Dynasty to the middle Yuan Dynasty

The degree of recovery is not high
The northern boundary of the elephant herd has moved to the south of Nanling

Cartography丨Geography Commune丨Du Zhuoyi

From the analysis of the temperature change curve, China's current average temperature is similar to that of the third warm period in the Sui and Tang Dynasties.

 

Warm China

ongoing tense

This is not global warming

a small interlude

It’s not that far removed from our lives.

After dinner

climate

This hand that changes everything

in the present and the foreseeable future

It is bound to have an impact on the world as well as our country and nation

produce immeasurable impact

 

Mr. Zhu Kezhen’s paper was published in

1970s

Although it was not clear at that time whether to enter the next

warm cycle

But it revealed the tip of the iceberg of China’s warming

Laying a solid foundation for the theory of cold and warm cycles

Mr. Shi Yafeng started from the northwest warm and humidification

bold hypothesis

Be careful to verify

The relay is completed

A blueprint for China’s fifth warm cycle

 

"In old age, I dare not forget to worry about the country, but I am determined to rejuvenate the nine states."

Chinese older generation scientists

With their serious academic attitude

Invincible courage and perseverance

The road is blue

I just want to do something for the country and nation that have gone through vicissitudes of life

Identify the direction

escort

 

People often because of scientific rigor

and labeling scientists as stereotypes

But actually

The feeling of taking the world as one's own responsibility

It is often the more valuable character of scientists

for them

Guided by a sense of contribution

Exploration and sacrifice regardless of gain or loss

both happy

More free

 

Auspicious snow in Qaidam Basin. Photography | Master

 

"The lush green summer and colorful autumn

Seems like a distant past

The desert land will lie under the snow-white cloak

Close your eyes and recall the passing days and months

The earth will not age

Winter is just a peaceful dream

It will wake up in the warm spring breeze

Make yourself young again”

——"The Ordinary World" Northern Shaanxi writer Lu Yao

Leave a Reply